Chapter 1: Introduction. 4

1.1 Background. 4

1.2 Study Objectives. 5

1.3 AMOS Features. 6

1.4 Study Conclusions. 7

1.5 Outline of Report. 9

Chapter 2: A Critical Review of the Trip-Based, Four-Step Procedure of Urban Passenger Demand Forecasting. 10

2.1 Advantages. 10

2.2 Internal Inconsistencies. 11

2.3 Data Inefficiency. 11

2.4 Lack of Behavioral Foundation. 12

2.5 Resulting Problems as a Policy Tool 12

2.6 Summary. 14

Chapter 3: Why the Activity-Based Approach?. 15

Chapter 4: Overview of AMOS.. 18

4.1 Paradigm Shifts. 18

4.2 Structure of the Model System... 20

4.3 Data Needs. 23

4.4 Areas of Application. 24

Chapter 5: AMOS System Components. 26

5.1 Baseline Activity - Travel Analyzer. 27

5.2 TDM Response Option Generator. 29

5.3 Activity-Travel Pattern Modifier. 30

5.4 Evaluation Module and Acceptance Routines. 37

5.5 Statistics Accumulator. 37

Chapter 6: Application to the Washington, D.C., Area. 39

6.1 AMOS Survey. 39

6.2 AMOS Survey Sample Profile. 44

6.3 Analysis of Stated Responses to TDM Strategies. 45

6.3.1 Distributions of Stated Responses. 46

6.4 Implementation of TDM Response Option Generator. 54

6.5 Implementation of AMOS with MWCOG Databases. 61

6.6 Examples of AMOS Application to Commuters in MWCOG Sample. 69

Chapter 7: Policy Analysis. 78

7.1 Evaluation Measures. 78

7.2. Micro-Simulation Procedure. 78

7.3 Results of AMOS Prototype Simulation Runs. 80

Chapter 8: Conclusions and Recommendations. 86